The widely reported surge in the age of first-time homebuyers to a median of 40 may be a statistical mirage, according to a new exclusive analysis. Data from the real estate brokerage Redfin, shared with Business Insider, places the median age at 35 for 2025, challenging the narrative of a rapidly ageing cohort of new entrants to the housing market.

This finding contradicts a high-profile report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released last autumn, which indicated the median age had reached a record 40. That figure sparked concerns that homeownership, a traditional marker of adult success, was becoming inaccessible to younger generations.

Diverging Data on a Key Milestone

Redfin's analysis, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, shows a more modest trend. Economists found the median age for first-time buyers peaked at 38 in 2018, fell to 34 during the low-mortgage-rate pandemic years of 2021-2022, and has since risen to 35. "It is very consistent with this idea that housing affordability is very strained," says Chen Zhao, a senior economist at Redfin, "and therefore you have to be older to afford a house right now."

The discrepancy stems from different methodologies. The NAR's figure comes from an annual survey sent to over 173,000 recent buyers, which garnered a 3.5% response rate. Redfin and other critics, including researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Mortgage Bankers Association, use larger national datasets like credit reports and census supplements, which they argue are more robust.

Experts Question the "Geriatric Homebuyer" Narrative

Connor O'Brien, a fellow at the Institute for Progress, analysed Census data and found the median age for all buyers was around 42 in 2023, far lower than the NAR's reported 49 for that year. "It seemed totally implausible," O'Brien stated, referring to the NAR's subsequent finding of a median age of 59 for all buyers by 2025.

Jessica Lautz, the NAR's deputy chief economist, defended the organisation's methodology in an emailed statement, describing it as "the only national survey that asks primary residence buyers if they are a first-time buyer or repeat buyer." She argued that analyses of mortgage and census data must rely on assumptions that may not reflect modern market realities, such as all-cash purchases or temporary renting before owning again.

Policy Implications and Persistent Challenges

The debate has significant implications. "People are potentially going to make policy based on their view of how the economy and housing market are developing," O'Brien warned. "If their views are fundamentally incorrect, that could be a big problem."

Despite the more moderate age shift, challenges for younger buyers remain acute. An analysis by Ben Glasner of the Economic Innovation Group found that while millennials catch up to boomers' homeownership rates by age 44, at age 32 only 41.3% of millennials owned a home compared to 54.7% of boomers at the same age. Experts across the spectrum agree the fundamental issue is a shortage of housing supply in desirable areas.

"We don't have enough housing where people want to live, and where people find the job markets that they want to participate in," Glasner concluded. While the goalposts for first-time homebuying may not have moved as dramatically as feared, the race to reach them is undoubtedly harder for today's younger generations.