Russian military units withdrawn from the Arctic to fight in Ukraine have suffered devastating losses, significantly degrading Moscow's capabilities in the strategically vital High North. Vice Admiral Rune Andersen, Chief of the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, told Business Insider that while there is no immediate threat, NATO must prepare for a rebuilt and expanded Russian Arctic military once the Ukraine conflict concludes.
Andersen stated that Russia has pulled most of its forces from the Kola Peninsula, a key hub for its Arctic and nuclear forces near Finland, to bolster its campaign in Ukraine. "Russia is bogged down in Ukraine," he said, noting that a significant portion of these redeployed troops have been killed in combat.
Hollowed-Out Arctic Capability
A recent report by experts at the RAND Corporation, a US think tank, confirms this assessment, concluding that Russia's decision has led to "the hollowing out of the country's Arctic-capable ground units." The report further warns that the end of hostilities in Ukraine would allow Russia to reinvest heavily in its military posture across the High North.
Vice Admiral Andersen emphasised the strategic window this creates for NATO. "We are preparing for a more dangerous Russia," he said, adding that the alliance needs to "use this time well" to strengthen its own defences.
Historical Buildup and Current Concerns
Russia's military expansion in the Arctic has been a growing concern for NATO for over a decade. Since the 2000s, Moscow has reopened and refurbished Soviet-era bases, increased aerial and maritime patrols, and deployed advanced missile defence systems in the region, according to analyses by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In the late 2010s, Russia also initiated more active submarine deployments from the Kola Peninsula. This historical context underscores why a potential Russian military resurgence in the Arctic is viewed as a serious long-term challenge by neighbouring states like Norway.
NATO's Arctic Preparations Intensify
In response, NATO allies are accelerating investments to secure the Arctic region. These include new surveillance capabilities, icebreakers, drones, satellites, and cold-weather vehicles. Military exercises have also expanded in scale to prepare troops for the extreme conditions of high-intensity Arctic combat.
"You need to train here to be able to fight here," Andersen stated. "In practical terms, it is those troops who have that training and that equipment who are relevant in the Arctic."
This preparation will be on display next month during the biennial Cold Response drills in northern Norway, where thousands of NATO troops will train for operations in an environment where harsh temperatures and vast, fragmented supply lines present unique dangers.
While an Arctic conflict is not considered imminent due to Russia's focus on Ukraine, NATO military planners are treating the current period as a critical opportunity to build deterrence against a future, reconstituted threat from the north.