Expatriate residents are gradually returning to Dubai more than a week after a ceasefire was agreed between the US and Iran, ending a period of regional conflict that prompted a significant exodus. Schools have announced the resumption of in-person teaching from Monday, and many businesses are shifting staff back to offices, signalling a tentative return to normality in the Gulf emirate.
The conflict, which began in late February, saw Iran strike the UAE with drones and missiles, causing casualties and infrastructure damage. The immediate aftermath led to school closures, a shift to remote work, and airspace disruptions that stranded thousands of travellers. Official estimates cited by the Financial Times indicate that approximately 30,000 British residents left the UAE since the war's onset, though permanent departure numbers remain unclear.
Decisions to Return Amid Uncertainty
For some expatriates, the ceasefire has provided enough confidence to return. Sandy Zanella, a US-born doctor and mindfulness coach who left for Italy with her family, plans to return to Dubai this Saturday. "I feel privileged to have this kind of opportunity" to leave temporarily, Zanella told Business Insider, adding she would have returned even without a ceasefire. However, she expressed lingering caution about her children attending school full-time due to the unpredictable situation.
Other residents, like Chantelle Thompson who moved from the UK in January, chose to remain throughout the conflict. Thompson stated leaving "was never a consideration," and her family is now completing their relocation, including arranging for their pets to be brought over. "We've just realised that it's become our new normal," she said.
Economic and Social Divergence
The experience of the crisis has varied dramatically across Dubai's social strata. While many white-collar professionals and wealthy expatriates had the means to leave temporarily, the city's large population of migrant workers faced heightened difficulties. Jason Nemerovski, a researcher at labour rights organisation Equidem, reported that many migrant workers experienced salary cuts and had little choice but to stay. "This was a decision made out of desperation, not desire," Nemerovski said, contrasting their circumstances with those from Western nations.
Business activity shows mixed signals. Charli Wright, CEO of Dubai-based marketing agency JWI, reported her team has returned to in-person work with clients pushing for face-to-face meetings. Conversely, relocation data from Send My Bag indicated a 543% increase in shipment orders out of the UAE since March 1. CEO Adam Ewart noted a recent rise in larger shipment orders leaving, which may suggest more permanent moves, while incoming shipments are partly driven by families abroad sending care packages.
Contingency Planning and Cautious Optimism
The prevailing mood among those returning or staying is one of cautious assessment. Antonio Masih, director of pet relocation service Pawsome Friends, noted that while March saw 70-80 daily inquiries to move pets out of the UAE, activity has "calmed down considerably" since the ceasefire. "I think if you give it probably about another two weeks, I think everything will be back to normal," Masih stated.
Angus Gibson, founder of private education consultancy Treberys Private, observed a strategic shift among high-net-worth families. "Families are increasingly looking at how to preserve stability for children, whether that means staying put with the right support around them, or putting a temporary alternative in place until the picture in Dubai becomes clearer," Gibson explained. This sentiment underscores that while the cautious return has begun, long-term confidence in Dubai's safe-haven status is still being rebuilt.