The chief executive of Ryanair has warned that the airline's jet fuel supplies could face significant disruption if the war involving Iran continues into May. Michael O'Leary stated that 10% to 25% of the carrier's fuel supply for May and June is potentially at risk, highlighting the aviation industry's vulnerability to geopolitical instability.
Speaking to Sky News on Wednesday, O'Leary explained that while no immediate disruption is expected, the situation could deteriorate. "We don't expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June," he said. The CEO of Europe's biggest airline group by passenger numbers expressed a common industry hope, adding, "So like everyone else in this industry, we hope the war ends sooner rather than later."
Fuel Price Volatility Outpaces Crude Oil
Since the conflict began in late February, jet fuel prices have doubled, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This surge is markedly steeper than the approximately 50% increase seen in Brent crude oil over the same period, underscoring the specific pressures on aviation fuel markets.
Ryanair, which carried over 200 million passengers last year across its main brand and subsidiaries, has taken defensive financial measures. O'Leary confirmed the airline has hedged about 80% of its fuel costs until March of next year. However, this leaves the remaining 20% exposed to current market price rises.
Operational Adjustments and Regional Travel Shift
The budget carrier has already suspended its 12 weekly flights to Jordan due to the conflict. Despite the supply concerns, O'Leary expressed confidence in Ryanair's overall supply chain resilience. "Most of Europe takes most of its jet fuel supplies from America, western Africa, and Norway," he told Sky News, though he acknowledged some suppliers are more dependent on Middle Eastern sources.
O'Leary also reported a noticeable shift in European travel patterns over the Easter holiday period, which has benefited the airline. "Lots of families who would have been going either to the Middle East or flying over the Middle East to go to Asia have all rebooked, and they're going to Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece," he told Virgin Media News.
Future Outlook and Passenger Advice
The Ryanair CEO indicated that while summer holiday plans have not yet been widely altered, this could change if the conflict persists. He concluded with direct advice to consumers, recommending they book flights as soon as possible due to the risk of continued airfare increases driven by fuel costs and demand for European destinations.
O'Leary affirmed the airline's strategic intent despite the challenges, stating, "We think our supplies are secure and we intend to continue to grow through this crisis." The situation remains fluid, with the industry closely monitoring both fuel supply logistics and regional security developments.