A new academic study has identified more than $143 million (£113 million) in profits from suspicious trading activity on the Polymarket prediction platform between 2024 and 2026. The research, conducted by academics from Columbia Law School and the University of Haifa, analysed the majority of trades on the platform to flag accounts that made large, bullish bets shortly before major news events.
The findings, published this month, represent the first estimate of total winnings by accounts exhibiting anomalous behaviour, which is often discussed by observers on social media platforms like X and Discord.
Methodology and Major Cases
Authors Joshua Mitts, a Columbia Law School professor, and Moran Ofir used five criteria relating to trade timing and wager size to screen for accounts. They ranked over 210,000 bets based on how unusual they were for both the individual trader and the specific market.
One notable case involved an account named "ricosuave666," which began betting thousands on questions about Israeli military strikes on Iran in June 2024. When Israel struck Iran on 13 June 2024, the account netted roughly $155,000 before going dormant. The researchers noted its gains closely matched ill-gotten profits attributed to a person charged by Israeli authorities with using military secrets to trade.
Despite this, ricosuave666's most suspicious trade was only the 3,662nd-most unusual in the dataset. The 20 most suspicious trades alone accounted for about $16 million of the total flagged profits.
Defining "Informed" Trading
Professor Mitts told *Business Insider* that the study generally uses the term "informed" trading rather than "insider" trading. This broader term encompasses both savvy bettors and those with potentially unfair advantages, particularly in markets where too many people can influence an outcome for it to be easily rigged—such as those related to the 2024 US election.
"We think there's going to be a lot of regulatory attention. We see this as just the beginning of the conversation," Mitts said. The authors acknowledged their methodology could be over- or under-inclusive and that some flagged trades might be part of hedging strategies offset by losses in other wallets.
Academic Scrutiny and Platform Response
The study's methodology has been questioned by some experts not involved in the research. Harry Crane, a Rutgers statistics professor, told *Business Insider* that the ranking of "suspiciousness" was heavily skewed by a trade's profitability, rather than what ordinary people might consider suspicious behaviour. "A winning bet is getting disproportionately more weight than a losing bet of the exact same type," Crane said.
In response to growing scrutiny, Polymarket announced earlier this month that it would ban trades by people with "stolen confidential information" and "illegal tips," as well as those who can influence event outcomes. However, the offshore exchange, which processes over 90% of the platform's volume, does not collect users' names or identifying information beyond an email address, raising questions about enforcement. Polymarket did not reply to *Business Insider*'s request for comment.
Regulatory Landscape and Market Growth
The research concludes that "prediction markets have outpaced the legal frameworks designed to govern them." The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket in 2022 and previously restricted many contracts. Under the Trump administration, Michael Selig, a Trump appointee who took the helm of the CFTC last year, has been a vocal advocate for such markets and has criticised state-level crackdowns.
Prediction markets have grown significantly, with platform Kalshi expanding rapidly in 2025 after offering US-based sports betting. Several US states have sued Kalshi and other prediction markets, arguing they operate as unlicensed casinos. Kalshi recently announced it is seeking fines from two users who broke its rules, including a video editor for MrBeast who bet on show content before release.